The Art of the Transaction
important update on my largest position
This is Corkscrew Grove (orange)—once a 4,623‑acre citrus operation that is now being rezoned to support a master‑planned community of 9,000 homes. The property sits adjacent to State Road 82, which connects directly to Fort Myers—roughly a 30–40‑minute drive from the grove to the city center.
If you haven’t heard of Fort Myers, it’s one of those U.S. cities that have exploded in population during the 21st century. The city grew from 52,000 people in 2000 to 63,000 in 2010, and reached 97,000 by 2023. Its metro area followed a similar path—growing from 620,000 to an estimated 861,000 by the end of 2024. The drivers? Sun, sandy beaches, a pro-business culture, and no state income tax.
Although Fort Myers is still relatively affordable compared to nearby Naples, the need for lower-cost housing in that area has grown significantly in the recent years. As a result, development has been pushing eastward. During the past year that I have held the stock, I’ve spoken with several ALCO 0.00%↑ investors who have visited Corkscrew Grove, and they all highlight the same thing: the amount of housing going up along SR‑82 is massive.
Last month, I finally came across concrete evidence that this wave of development has reached Alico’s land, which spans both the south and north sides of SR‑82. And not only does this news confirm that growth is moving in Alico’s direction, but it’s also the single most relevant datapoint for valuing Corkscrew Grove—by far the most valuable piece in Alico’s land portfolio.
The reason this is so material is because, until now, investors only had a rough sense of land values—mainly by referencing the Lay of the Land or Florida Market Watch reports. From that, it was clear that Corkscrew Grove was worth far more than the ~$5K per acre implied by Alico’s current market cap. But averages, as the word implies, are just that—averages. They’re not specific enough to accurately value a unique, high-potential asset like Corkscrew.
Some of the more diligent investors (myself included :)) may have dug deeper and tried to find comparable transactions—but none were truly apples-to-apples. Some were too far away, others too small in scale, like the Julian Grove. One was distorted by the presence of a rock mine, and some dated too far back to be relevant. Nothing gave a clear, current read on what Corkscrew Grove could realistically be worth today.
Luckily, one transaction closed last month checks all the boxes: it’s comparable in size, close in proximity, and intended for the same use—community housing—just like Corkscrew. And because it wasn’t disclosed in a press release, 99% of investors likely aren’t even aware of it.
Of all the people I regularly talk to about Alico, only two reached out about the news—and none knew how to interpret it properly, since it was so poorly described in the news.
I did my best to dive deeper into the details—both to better understand the specifics of the transaction and the nuances of the local real estate market. I also spoke with Mitch Hutchcraft, Alico’s VP of Real Estate, who is arguably the single best person to consult on this matter. (you’ll understand why later)
So without further ado, here’s how this land sale—right in the neighborhood of Corkscrew Grove—should be applied to valuing Alico’s land, and what it means for the thesis going forward.
(spoiler: it’s material)